As for ‘transparency’ the Contest is far more transparent than it was even five years ago. In the event of a televoting failure, only a jury is used by that country; in the event of a jury failure, only televoting is used by that country. 14 votes, 24 comments. Such technical issues shouldn’t exist these days. It is current stated that the split is 50/50. This can mean that they are pulling out of Eurovision Song Contest, or that the newrules have to be changed. They never do. And so on down the ranking. Jamala won with her song ‘1944‘ on behalf of Ukraine, while coming in second place in both ranking. Austria has points from 4 countries, above Hungary’s 3, so should take the 10th place. San Marino don’t get to award televote points at all. The EBU use a system of pots of countries with broadly similar voting patterns in order to ensure that voting clusters are spread evenly between the two semi-finals. Having failed to qualify in their first four attempts, San Marino qualified for the Eurovision final for the first time in 2014. Was it statistically transparent? Iceland and Estonia both have good rankings, likely top 5. Come San Marino, Eurovision’s tiniest nation. Therefore it has always been impossible for San Marino to have a Song Contest televote. I don’t profess even to begin to understand your analysis. As suggested above, there is some sort of representative telephone panel of San Marino citizens. This solution was produced using the NNLS fit on all 41 televotes and uses the televotes of Georgia, Ireland, Lithuania and Malta and is clearly far from perfect. In 2016, San Marino, a country of just 32,500 (fewer than the nearly 38,000 that attended Eurovision in 2001), which has historically always used 100% jury votes due to its small size required a televote in order for the new system to work. They have tried 10 times, but San Marino … How was that televote calculated? The only possible source of information for what this could potentially be like is to use the pots created by Digame, which are used to draw which countries participate in which Semi Final. NNLS results on Pot 5 only and Pot 5 + UK, (Table 4a – NNLS results for all 41 televotes, and all 41 televotes + San Marino Jury), (Table 4b – NNLS results for Pot 5 countries + SMR jury, and Pot 5 countries only). 4: False. Even though NNLS didn’t find a solution, some combinations had interesting parallels. 2: True. Applying the same method to everyone makes the system auditable, gives the appearance of fairness and avoids the need to scramble together a last minute solution. This is so called jury–televote 50/50. The EBU has just released jury vote and televote details for the recent Eurovision Song Contest final and two semi finals – almost a month earlier than the 2010 figures were released last year – which throw up some interesting findings as … Twitter: @escinsight. The two biggest clues are Poland and Georgia. Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email. This suggests that the San Marino televote was not the result of a simple average of a pot of other televotes, contrary to what the EBU says about the method, and our successful reconstruction of the SF1 televote. As we said, none of our models found a perfect match, but we used these models to put together combinations of countries to average manually. This methodology worked. All countries used televoting and/or SMS-voting (50%) and five-member juries (50%), apart from San Marino which was 100% jury due to country size. Zweiter Finalist für San Marino. Eurovision news: Carlo Romeo, Director General of the Sammarinese national broadcaster, SMRTV, has spoken out following the introduction of a new voting system to be used Away from the daily news and happenings, the Song Contest means so much more than the single Saturday night show in May. 4: True. Greece is ranked more highly than Cyprus, but not necessarily 1st or 2nd. Sängerin Senhit soll nun beim ESC 2021 für das dritte Mal … To increase openness, the organisers of the Eurovision Song Contest decided that from 2014 onwards, the detailed split jury and televoting results would be revealed per country. With more questions being raised around the voting and points calculation at the Eurovision Song Contest 2019, Ellie Chalkly breaks open the spreadsheet to look at another potential problem - San Marino’s constructed televote. The solution? The nation did not participate in 2009 or 2010, citing financial difficulties. Televoting, or voting by telephone, was first introduced at the Eurovision Song Contest 1997 as an alternative to the traditional jury system and was tested by five countries - the rest used the jury system. Senhit will represent San Marino at the Eurovision Song Contest 2021 with the song Adrenalina. San Marino will be competing to join Norway, Israel, Russia, Azerbaijan, Malta, Lithuania, Cyprus, Sweden, Belgium and Ukraine in qualifying for the Eurovision final. Twelve points from San Marino go to ... No, they don't go to Italy. Prior to the 2018 contest, San Marino had participated in the Eurovision Song Contest eight times since its first entry in 2008. It certainly makes the UK a far better match than Italy, which of course surrounds the microstate. Ellie and Ben – great bit of work. So for example, let’s use the Irish televote in this year’s Grand Final. In non-maths terminology this is a system which attempts to find which of the data will best fit our answer. No…. We know roughly what values we’re aiming at, so we can try and solve it like a logic puzzle. A post shared by San Marino // EUROVISION 2021 (@sanmarinoesc21) on Feb 26, 2020 at 4:43am PST What we should be able to do is rather than put in which countries we think match the data, calculate this the other way around. An Introduction From ESC Insight’s Ewan Spence…. With more questions being raised around the voting and points calculation at the Eurovision Song Contest 2019, Ellie Chalkley breaks open the spreadsheet to look at another potential problem – San Marino’s constructed televote. Senhit will represent San Marino at the Eurovision Song Contest 2021 with the song Adrenalina. The dogs bark, but the caravan moves on. save. Search for: Search. Closed event. Under the old voting system all the points from San Marino were decided by a jury in San Marino, because San Marino is too small to have a valid televote. Several other community members have done work showing that some jurors likely ranked the entries backwards, and showed the comparative margins of victory for the Top 50 songs of the decade. An observation: This is a “contest” that no longer even bothers to prescribe, in the official rules, how the final scores are determined, saying only that “The points of the National Juries and of the National Audiences shall be combined according to a ratio which is determined by the EBU, subject to Reference Group approval.” (Source: http://www.eurovision.tv/upload/2017/2017_ESC_rules_EN_FINAL_PUBLIC-08-07-2016.pdf). The results of this vote would then represent San Marino as part of their televote, ... San Marino’s participation at Eurovision so far has been marred with non qualifications, having only qualified for the final once so far out of 7 attempts. Next, we look through the rest of the semi final for countries which fit these criteria. Post was not sent - check your email addresses! On 21 January 2019, it was announced that SerhatSerhat The Eurovision Song Contest is organized by the European Broadcasting Union, the world's foremost alliance of public service media, representing 116 member organizations in 56 countries and an additional 34 Associates in Asia, Africa, Australasia and the Americas. 3. It’s something I think you just have to accept as a continuing ESC fan at this point. San Marino nahm am Eurovision Song Contest 2016 in Stockholm , Schweden, teil .Der nationale Sammarinese-Sender Radiotelevisione della Repubblica di San Marino (SMRTV) wählte intern den türkischen Sänger Serhat mit " Ich wusste nicht " aus, um die Nation im Wettbewerb zu vertreten.Das Lied wurde von Olcayto Ahmet Tuğsuz und Nektarios Tyrakis geschrieben und am 9. 4. Anyone got an idea? Was it fair? Has anyone cracked the code yet for how San Marino's televote results are calculated? Russia gets 12, Ukraine 10, Australia 8. 4 San Marino 8.55% 5 Russia 6.32% 6 Greece 4.67% 7 Switzerland 4.61% 8 Iceland 3.90% 9 Cyprus 3.80% 10 Ireland 3.38% 11 Finland 2.52% 12 Israel 2.19% 13 Hungary 2.09% 14 Latvia 2.00% 15 Montenegro 1.54% 16 Austria 1.36% 17 Denmark 1.25% 18 Belgium 0.77%. Pot 5 is very much an odds-and-ends grouping, although some links (Poland and Lithuania score well from Ireland traditionally) are known to exist. For example Pot 2 is filled of Nordic and Baltic nations, whereas Pot 3 is made up of countries in the Former USSR. We finally found out how (one of) the systems for creating emergency backup Eurovision votes works, and it has had some impact on this year’s scores. Bookmakers have predicted Netherlands. tracked down the error in the aggregated score that replaced the dismissed Belarus jury, a correction of the scores that affected placings, some jurors likely ranked the entries backwards, Back in 2016 Ben Robertson and I investigated the aggregated score that replaces San Marino’s televote, Maintaining Trust In The Eurovision Voting System. Either our Semi Final calculation is a freak, or something different is going on here. The only exception was 2011, and the crowd wasn't even that happy (video here). Eurovision 2012 - The EBU has not finally revealed the split jury and televote results of the final and both semi-finals of the Eurovision Song Contest 2012. 5 comments. Subscribe to our newsletter. The San Marino 12 and 10 points were awarded to Greece and Cyprus, which works out just fine as Greece and Cyprus both came highest in each other’s televote. One of the lesser publicised facts from the new rules was that countries without a televote at threshold level will have a ‘televote’ created for them from the results of other countries. Thanks for this work, I always find this interesting. Let’s just run the numbers including Finland and Belgium just to make absolutely sure. This method is also used during the Sanremo Festival, often the National Selection for Italy for Eurovision, so it is a proven successful method, and would represent perfectly the views of the San Marino public more than the current method. Ellie Chalkley and Ben Robertson plow through the data in an attempt to re-create that mythical televote. Today is San Marino Republic Day which celebrates the foundation of the republic of San Marino in 301. All 41 televotes + San Marino Jury Let’s see if we can calculate an average of the Pot 5 televotes and then see if we can retrieve the right countries with the non-negative least squares (NNLS) function. There really does not seem to be a combination of the published televotes that can be used to generate the San Marino result. San Marino has participated in the Eurovision Song Contest 10 times, debuting in the 2008 contest, followed by participation from 2011 onward. Having failed to qualify in their first four attempts, the nation qualified for the contest's grand final for the first time in 2014. It was incredibly difficult for me to narrow this down to just ten songs I think will progress to the Final. Why not allow the San Marinese public to use an app to vote that is geo-fenced within the borders of San Marino? Below you can see the jury and the made up televoting points San Marino gave at this year’s Eurovision Song Contest. San Marino’s televote points are simply their jury points repeated. Using the above facts, we have been able to reach some conclusions about the San Marino televote. Place JURY VOTE: Points Place TELEVOTE: Points… We then put score and votes into the NNLS function and retrieve a 41 x 1 matrix that represents the algorithm’s best guess at what the weights matrix was. BET365 10BET BOYLE SPORTS UNIBET WILLIAM HILL 888 SPORT BETSSON; 1: Netherlands Duncan Laurence - Arcade: … Posts tagged “ san marino ” Eurovision 2017 Song Reviews (Finally!) 12 Albania 10 Russia 8 … Giving everyone the data to work out where these aggregated scores come from (at least after the event), would enable those in competition and the extremely engaged audience to have confidence in the results. Flo Rida is set to represent San Marino at Eurovision 2021 in the Netherlands. As you can see there is a big difference between the San Marino jury and televote. Given the small numbers involved, we have the likelihood of ties, which we deal with using the standard EBU countback method: Number of countries giving points If you cannot trust the scoreboard, why enter the Contest. San Marino first competed in Eurovision in 2008 and they haven’t yet made a big impression on the stage. Number of 8s Then you could be sure that you’re applying the same maths in the same way to anyone who needed an emergency score. People have got PhDs for less than this! There’s lots of maths to explain how and why, but here are the headlines. Albania and Moldova came second and third, respectively, on both shows. Serhat doesn’t know either (image: eurovision.tv / Klaus Roethliesberger), To recap, the change in the voting presentation for 2016’s Eurovision Song Contest meant that each country was required to produce both a jury result and a televote result. Today is San Marino Republic Day which celebrates the foundation of the republic of San Marino in 301. Let’s look at what the rankings look like if you just use Greece and Cyprus. By just using the points, this model works almost well enough to predict the first nine scores (Ukraine gets the 12 on countback), but there’s no reasonable scenario to give Hungary the 1 point. San Marino participated in the Eurovision Song Contest 2019.The Sammarinese broadcaster San Marino RTV (SMRTV) confirmed that a season of 1in360 would not take place this year as it had been discussed. Who will receive most points from televoting in the Grand Final? It appears that the Italian jury vote was as follows. Eurovision’s new voting system might be exciting, but it has led to San Marino losing its televote. The nation did not participate in 2009 or 2010, citing financial difficulties. Is that a fair way to create a San Marinese televote? Security by obscurity is a fantasy. This year the Eurovision Song Contest voting system was radically overhauled.One of the lesser publicised facts from the new rules was that countries without a televote at threshold level will have a ‘televote’ created for … San Marino has this evening revealed that they are to be represented by Valentina Monetta & Jimmie Wilson with the song "Spirit Of The Night" at the 62nd edition of the Eurovision Song Contest in Kyiv, Ukraine. Multiply each score by either 1 (if it corresponds to a Pot 5 country) or 0 (any other country) and add the totals. Away from the daily news and happenings, the Song Contest means so much more than the single Saturday night show in May. [5] Their debut entry in 2008, "Complice" performed by Miodio, failed to qualify to the final and placed last in the semi-final it competed in. However even tinkering with the number of countries in the mix to have more or less didn’t find the perfect answer. The vote of this ‘panel’ would join that of the jury to go to form the total vote at the San Marino Eurovision Song Contest. And if we can spend hours going through EBU data and not come to a correct conclusion, we have to anticipate this must surely be more complex than we first thought. Using the three nuggets of information from the EBU before our analysis, we know that the countries chosen to replicate the San Marinese televote had been pre-selected. ESC Insight's Patreon page is now live; click here to see what it's all about, and how you can get involved and directly support our coverage of your Eurovision Song Contest. The San Marino televote remains a mystery, and this remains a problem. Analysing San Marino’s 2016 Televote. No matter what combinations of televote rankings we tried, it was not possible to verify how the televote was created. Which is why the situation around San Marino’s ‘public’ vote feels wrong. They never do. Eurovision week is upon us and all eyes are on San Marino and their rather unexpected guest star, Flo Rida. Because of San Marino’s size (and sharing its phone system with Italy) it has never been able to produce a televote with the volume required to pass the confidence threshold required. Robert, It is my understanding that some of those solutions are under active discussion. The method used is not one of the numerous ways we have demonstrated in this report, Other countries were selected that were not from San Marino’s pot, Mistakes were made in the EBU’s calculations of the San Marino’s result. In this regard, Russia’s quitting made things a little easier for me. Obviously in case of problems or malfunctions of the simulated remote voting system, the European Broadcasting Union may then resort to an emergency vote putting the current system to use not as a primary option, but as a backup.”. ), https://i2.wp.com/wiwibloggs.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/mavmk.jpg. If the San Marino simulated televote is the result of averaging some of the 41 other countries in the Eurovision Song Contest, the answer must lie somewhere. Following the Contest in Tel Aviv the ‘generated’ Belarussian jury vote was proven to be wrong, investigations are continuing over the Italian televote discrepancy, and various individual jury rankings are being questioned. Choose a show and a country to explore the detailed voting results in the event overview. This is not the first time Romeo has spoken out on behalf of SMRTV. In our calculations, we generalise this to (n – w) for all the countries, where w is a weight that is 1 for a country included in the averaging pot or 0 for a country that is not. 3: False. Confirming the San Marino televote process should be one of the EBU’s first steps in rebuilding the loss of trust in the results of the Eurovision Song Contest. Why has the community’s confidence been damaged since the credits rolled over ‘Arcade’? Find the podcast in iTunes. As an overly analytical pop fan and general knowledge hoarder she finds the Eurovision Song Contest bubble to be her natural home. As an overly analytical pop fan and general knowledge hoarder she finds the Eurovision Song Contest bubble to be her natural home. Post was not sent - check your email addresses! She comments gnomically and statistically on Eurovision matters at @ellie_made. The highlight though is that none of the trials of all 41 televotes suggested that the Czech or Maltese televotes formed a component of the simulated San Marino Grand Final televote. San Marino RTV has confirmed today that they have received a response from the European Broadcasting Union, rejecting the broadcasters proposal to introduce a voting method that would enable a televote within San Marino. In a year where the winner was decided by 26 points and qualification was decided by single point margins, transparency concerning scoring is hugely important. Interestingly there were no points for Sweden. Divide by 5 if the country wasn’t in the GF or 4 if it was. This method combines countries in the same semi-final draw allocation pot as the country you’re calculating for. The EBU can therefore confirm that the televoting result in its entirety has been verified, rechecked, and is correct, including the calculation of the San Marino result. (Also, a serious non-rhetorical question: Has the Reference Group ever said “no” to the EBU, and if so, about what? San Marino’s 2019 Televote – Poland and Georgia High/Low combinations (image: Ellie Chalkley), San Marino’s 2019 Televote – Cyrpus and Greece with Finland (image: Ellie Chalkley), San Marino’s 2019 Televote – Cyrpus and Greece with Belgium (image: Ellie Chalkley). In 2016, he issued a statement complaining about the new Eurovision voting system, which gave San Marino a fake “televote” as the microstate was unable to support a real televote. Wait though, we don’t seem to be getting closer. Valentina Monetta represente 14 votes, 24 comments. As we know, San Marino has no independent telephone system and a very small population. Roughly the right countries are in the points scoring zone, but the order is different. However, as was the case with modern Eurovision, financnes forced San Marino out of the show for two years after a rather poor … In 2016, San Marino, a country of just 32,500 (fewer than the nearly 38,000 that attended Eurovision in 2001), which has historically always used 100% jury votes due to its small size required a televote in order for the new system to work. So yeah, I'm not 100% happy when every year I hear that San Marino will compete again for Eurovision, and I wanted to share … Poland should be ranked 13th if the aggregator just includes Greece + Cyprus, but instead they were ranked 6th and obtained 5 televote points. In this worked example, we made a weights matrix from our favourite Pot 5 countries, which you can see in the column marked INPUT. This is far too low to keep a 3rd place from Ireland’s ‘douze’ alone. The nation did not participate in 2009 or 2010, citing financial difficulties. My observations are simpler. Dass Serhat 2016 mit "I Didn't Know", einem englischsprachigen Dancefloor-Song eines Türken (Olcayto Ahmet Tuğsuz) mit dem Text eines Griechen (Nektarios Tyrakis), das kleine Land San Marino in Stockholm vertreten hat, war quasi einem Zufall zu verdanken.Sein Manager ist Italiener und wurde vom TV-Sender San Marinos kontaktiert, ob Serhat … San Marino first competed in Eurovision in 2008 and they haven’t yet made a big impression on the stage. Limited to Pot 5 I’m increasingly of the opinion that the result is not calculated by points or ranks, but rather the raw number of votes and/or the percentages of votes in the countries in question – hence why Cyprus and Greece are so high in San Marino’s votes given that presumably they both commanded a huge percentage of the televotes cast in the Cypriot & Greek televotes. So, let’s look at what the simulated televote would be if the Pot 5 countries were used to on the Saturday night. Under the old voting system all the points from San Marino were decided by a jury in San Marino, because San Marino is too small to have a valid televote. I see no issue. These public ‘panel members’ would be required to watch two of the three Eurovision broadcasts and vote via the web in the same window of voting used by other European television viewers. Place JURY VOTE: Points Place TELEVOTE: Points… Our solution converts the component countries televotes to a slightly weighted ranking structure. In previous years San Marino defaulted to a 100 percent jury vote. Can we construct a single set of rankings that would give us the correct result? (Table 7: Geo, Ire, Lith, Malta combination). Security by obscurity is not security at all, it is theatre. https://www.thesun.co.uk/tv/14999100/flo-rida-confirmed-perform-
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